Design of a Maritime Security System under Uncertainty Using an Evolutionary Real Options Approach
نویسندگان
چکیده
This paper presents an evolutionary real options model of optimization by genetic algorithms and Monte Carlo simulation, to select the best maritime domain protection system configuration and a corresponding adaptive plan with the right amount of flexibilities to address uncertainty. Monte Carlo simulations enumerate diverse terrorism threat paths, decision trees identify possible system (re)configuration and dynamic adaptive plans, and genetic algorithms evaluate and select near optimum solutions, acquiring and exercising the right real options at the right time. Genetic Algorithms are effective and efficient in both compositing suitable pieces of real options and formulating the overall dynamic strategy plan to adapt to various paths future may take. As the whole modelling approach is integrated, many interesting system properties emerge.
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